← Pokebox USA Store Championships PTM
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Pokebox USA Store Championships PTM
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-6-0
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1255
· median 1255
· range 1102–1408
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1250
Q3 1461
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +22.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
